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28 months later – a cartoon guide to the referendum

June 21, 2016

There’s a lot of noise and passion on the EU Referendum. But not much is clear on this most crucial political decision of our lifetimes.   We asked ourselves, is anyone (apart from SAMI), thinking all this through?? what are all the possibilities and probabilities?? Where are the future studies, strategy analysis, or foresight techniques?

So at a late stage we tried some DIY foresight to ‘think it through’. The results are here, with four ‘what-if’ scenarios, in ‘28 Months Later: a Cartoon Guide’:

(A) “After Brexit the UK economy crashed badly… Scotland left & the EU started to fall apart… Trump took the USA & Russia took Eastern Europe… climate change made millions into refugees, amidst fascism & terrorism”

(B) “The UK stayed in, but pressures grew on both UK & EU… climate change, refugees, terrorism, austerity, financial crisis, fascism etc.. Lucky the EU was strong enough to keep it together, with at least the basics of society”

(C) “After Brexit the UK struggled, except for London, now the world’s biggest tax haven, with half of England as its playground… Meanwhile most UK jobs were totally deregulated, so actually more migrants are coming than ever before…”

(D) “In the EU the UK took up its leading role as a global beacon of peace & justice & prosperity. Together we started to build a smarter, wiser system, with greater respect for local workers & communities..”

Anyway, the big question is, which scenario is more likely??

The experts don’t know…. This time it’s all down to the people…

(if this Cartoon Guide is useful or entertaining, please circulate, repost, retweet & generally stir up the notion of ‘thinking it through’…)28 months later - cartoon guide

Written by Joe Ravetz, SAMI Principal

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.

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